If at all, Donald Trump does become the next US President, it is going to send shockwaves throughout the world. The Economist Intelligence Unit has listed Trump presidency as one of the top 10 global risks and such concerns are not unfounded. As much as we have seen and liked Trump – the astute businessman and the stern interviewer, we are yet to see his political persona; the few glimpses that we see these days don’t look very promising.
Trump’s tax plan has garnered a lot of praise from businesses, hedge funds and individuals. But a closer look reveals an enormous tax revenue loss. Such an act would lead to more business investment, more jobs, faster GDP growth and a bigger economy but also dramatically amplify the budget deficit and the spiralling US debt. And markets are not going to react too kindly to that. Investors would be spooked and would start demanding higher interest rates on US treasury bonds.
But all these points aside, what happens to the various bilateral relations of the US? Trump has already made some scathing remarks against China, and China wouldn’t like to forget it easily. Though he looks pro-India, and traditionally Republicans are so, India won’t really feel assured of his intentions. His statement of tearing up the Iran treaty has already sent jitters in international circles, and ‘backing Putin 100% over Syria’ might not go down too well with US’ traditional allies. The first 6 months would be a testing time for all the foreign diplomats and embassies.
All this will only happen when Trump is allowed to implement all that he has preached. We have seen it umpteen times what is promised before elections is often not what actually happens after that. Trump does not have many allies in the Congress and his ideas might never get the final approval to become laws. He probably might realize soon enough that running the nation as its president is not quite like running a company as a CEO. But till then, the entire world will be on tenterhooks, not knowing what next Donald Trump would have up on his sleeves. His intentions might be to make US the strongest economy but it might end up sowing the seeds of an uncertain and unstable global future.